What is the most realistic emissions scenario if nothing is done to reduce CO2 emissions?

Many papers and analyses use RCP8,5 to evaluate impacts of global warming. This scenario has 541 PPM CO2 in 2050. Is this a likely number?


The number seems pretty good. The last IPCC prediction was warming of between 1.5 and 6 C by the end of the century. Gosh, all those brilliant minds and super computers and that's the best they can do?

Donald K

Nothing. In case you haven't been outside recently, its all fake. In the mid-90s, we had Fahrenheit air temps of -38 and -40 in western Minnesota for days at a time, with highs in the teens below. One of the bumper stickers employed by those practical rural folk said, "Thank God for global warming." Indeed. When I went to work, either the car was left running or I would go out and start it every 90 minutes or so to be sure it would be able to get me home across open prairie when my shift was done. I've seen language in various articles/sites this week describing these sub-zero temperatures as "potentially-life-threatening". Hope the silly people writing that nonsense don't live there because I've got news for them: such temperatures are not potentially life-threatening. They are immediately life-threatening. Within minutes.


Considering that in the past CO2 has been in the thousands of PPMs with no discernible devastation. Of course that was before socialism was thunk up. .


A lot more carbon dioxide and a lot of warming.

Solar Wind

The Vostok/Greenland scientific ice core analysis proves CO2 follow Earth's temperature changes due to Sun cycles it does not lead or cause warming. Humans have no control over the Earth's climate and Nature will not be fooled. A natural Global Cooling cycle has begun and will last for 30 or so years.